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Top 10 Questions For 2014

Calculated Risk is my #1 source for all matters related to economics and housing.

And it should be yours, too!

Thank you, Bill and Tanta (RIP) for all of the effort and energy you’ve put into making Calculated Risk what it is today.

Every year-end, Bill creates a list of the 10 most important economic and housing related questions, along with his predictions.

These questions are a great snapshot of the US economy and of the housing market.

Here’s a quick recap of the top 10 questions for 2014, and the answers in brief.  For fuller details, read the questions in full. They’ll prove to be worth your while.

Question #1) How much will the economy grow in 2014?

Greater than 3% is likely, 4% plausible.

Question #2) Jobs, jobs, jobs?

2014 will be best year for job growth since 1999, and possibly even better.

Question #3) What will be the unemployment rate in Dec 2014?

6.5% or lower.

Question #4) Should we worry about too much inflation?

Not really.

Question #5) Will the Fed end QE3?  

Yes, but gradually over the year.

Question #6) Will Residential Investment increase?

Residential Investment will continue increasing, albeit from historical lows. Residential Investment includes new single-family or multi-family homes and home improvement.

Question #7) How will house prices fare in 2014?

The Case-Shiller-Weiss Index will be up 5% to 9%, compared to 2013 (when it was up 12%).

Question #8) Will housing credit tighten or loosen in 2014?

Housing credit will probably loosen a bit in 2014; a lot depends on Mel Watt, but things look upbeat on this front.

Question #9) How much will housing inventory increase? 

Probably 10% to 15%, or approximately 6 months supply.  This rise in inventory should dampen house price increases in 2014.

Question #10) Are there any downside risks to the US economy in 2014?

China perhaps… Nothing to lose sleep over.

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